Model Performance · NBA
Is a 65% projection actually winning near 65%? Calibration is checked out-of-sample on prior games only.
Selections
4044
Record (W-L-P)
2280-1764-0
Win %
56.4%
ROI (simulated)
+9%
364.14 units
Avg model prob
63%
Avg implied prob
51.8%
Brier score
0.245
lower is better calibrated
Max drawdown
-37.6 u
longest loss streak 9
Simulated equity curve (units)
Calibration by probability bucket
| Bucket | N | Actual | Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 991 | 46.3% | 52.4% |
| 55-60% | 856 | 53.5% | 57.4% |
| 60-65% | 670 | 57.2% | 62.4% |
| 65-70% | 570 | 58.2% | 67.4% |
| 70-75% | 419 | 64.7% | 72.3% |
| 75-100% | 538 | 70.1% | 80% |
By market
| Market | N | Wins | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 360 | 185 | 51.4% |
| blocks | 96 | 72 | 75% |
| pa | 360 | 203 | 56.4% |
| points | 360 | 186 | 51.7% |
| pr | 360 | 193 | 53.6% |
| pra | 360 | 193 | 53.6% |
| ra | 360 | 205 | 56.9% |
| rebounds | 360 | 205 | 56.9% |
| steals | 348 | 253 | 72.7% |
| stocks | 360 | 197 | 54.7% |
| threes | 360 | 187 | 51.9% |
| turnovers | 360 | 201 | 55.8% |
Walk-forward: each prediction used only games played before the graded game. Results are simulated on DEMO DATA. Model v1.0.